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Gold in a Crucial Week: Diplomacy, the Fed and Elections
Market update for the next two weeks: Pakistani mediation in Tehran, the Fed decision on October 28, Q3 GDP and PCE on October 29, and elections in Israel and the US.
Esta análise ainda não foi traduzida, por isso é apresentada em inglês.
The market currently leaves little room for quick answers. However, the next two weeks will bring events that could decide the next direction for gold. Here is what we are watching and what we are factoring in.
Diplomacy is on the move again
Today, Pakistani Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, arrived in Tehran. Pakistan has been a key mediator between the US and Iran this year. Munir’s visit carries significant weight: following his May trip to Iran, the Pakistani military reported “encouraging progress” toward a final understanding on a framework agreement with the US, and a few weeks later, the Islamabad Memorandum was signed.
At the same time, Iranian President Pezeshkian stated the day before that Iran welcomes every regional initiative for peace and is ready to resolve disputes through dialogue. We do not know the outcome of the visit yet, but the diplomatic channel is alive once again. Any shift toward opening Hormuz would mean cheaper oil, lower bond yields, and room for gold to rise.
The Fed: what is priced in
The Fed decides on interest rates on Wednesday, October 28. The decision will arrive at 19:00 our time, followed by the press conference at 19:30. The time difference will shorten to 5 hours following the clock change in Europe on October 25.
The market assigns an 82.8% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, so the decision itself will bring no surprises. The tone will be decisive: a December rate hike is priced in with near certainty. If the Fed hints that a further hike is not a foregone conclusion, it could serve as a powerful upward catalyst for gold.
GDP and core inflation: one day, two major numbers
On Thursday, October 29, at 13:30 our time, the US Bureau will publish its first estimate of Q3 GDP alongside September PCE inflation data. PCE, and particularly its core component, is the Fed’s most closely tracked inflation metric. For comparison: in the second quarter, GDP grew by 2.2% and core PCE inflation stood at 3.3%.
Weaker numbers would ease the pressure for further rate hikes, which benefits gold. Strong numbers would keep the market locked in its current regime.
Elections: Israel on October 27, USA on November 3
On Tuesday, October 27, Israel elects a new parliament. Polls show a tight race, with the most likely outcome being that neither bloc secures a majority. The result will influence Israel’s stance toward Iran.
A week later, on November 3, elections for the US Congress take place. The entire House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate are up for election. Trump has pledged not to strike Iran until this date. Fuel prices are a pivotal pre-election issue for him, creating significant pressure toward a diplomatic resolution.
What we are factoring in
Our expectation was that gold would return to our target values around $4,400 in October, ideally by mid-October. However, the circumstances developed differently: expensive oil, elevated bond yields, and escalation in the Persian Gulf are currently holding this movement back. This does not mean the target has vanished. It means it is shifting in time.
The period from October 27 through the first week of November converges the Fed, GDP, inflation, elections in Israel and the US, and diplomatic negotiations all at once. This is precisely where the next major move can be determined. If these events bring progress toward peace or a softened stance from the Fed, the path toward our targets can open up. If not, we will remain patient.
This is market reality. We cannot rush it; we can only be prepared. In the meantime, we continue doing what works: disciplined, day after day, collecting profits from short-term movements while keeping risk firmly under control. Patience in a market like this is an advantage, not a weakness.
Market impact - today’s trading day summary
Spot gold trades at USD 4,143.53 per troy ounce (overnight range USD 4,115.57–4,149.57) and Brent crude at USD 109.80 per barrel, with the US 10-year yield at 5.14%.
| Level | Zone (USD) |
|---|---|
| Resistance 2 | 4,155–4,162 |
| Resistance 1 | 4,146–4,150 |
| Key pivot | 4,134–4,141 |
| Support 1 | 4,115–4,123 |
| Macro support | 4,100–4,103 |
Rallies into the 4,155–4,162 pocket still face selling pressure, while a confirmed break below 4,134 opens a retest of 4,123 and 4,115. The window from October 27 to the first week of November is where the next major move can be decided.
Key dates: Oct 25 clock change in Europe, Oct 27 Israel election, Oct 28 Fed decision (19:00) and press conference (19:30), Oct 29 Q3 GDP and September PCE (13:30), Nov 3 US Congress election.
This report is prepared by the An Infinity Original team as a daily overview of market and geopolitical developments, based on publicly available sources and market data at the time of publication. It serves exclusively for informational and analytical purposes and is not financial advice. Trading on financial markets carries a high risk of capital loss.