Gold Crushed by Real Yields as Trump Rejects Iran’s Hormuz Offer

Gold slid about 4% on Monday to $4,130 as US yields hit 2007 highs and Trump rejected Tehran’s 7-day Hormuz proposal, with Brent holding near $104.

Hormuz: Trump rejects Tehran’s proposal

President Trump dismissed Abbas Araghchi’s 7-day conditional proposal to unfreeze assets and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Passage remains blocked for western tonnage and war-risk insurance premiums are at record highs, although Qatar-mediated back-channels stay technically open. Kpler data show partial rerouting of Gulf flows to Ras Tanura after attacks on the East-West pipeline.

Oil and the diesel crisis

Brent trades around $103.98 a barrel after touching $105–107 on Monday, while WTI sits near $91–92, leaving a Brent-WTI spread above $12. Houthi missile intercepts near Khamis Mushait add risk to Saudi supply, and record refining cracks plus Trump’s backing of possible US diesel export curbs are distorting transatlantic spreads and straining European industry.

Fed, yields and the macro calendar

Monday’s sell-off was rates-driven: Hormuz lifted oil, oil lifted inflation and Fed expectations, and yields and the dollar followed. The 10-year Treasury reached 5.23–5.24%, the highest since 2007, the 2-year neared 4.92% and the 10-year TIPS real yield sits near 2.83–2.85% with breakeven at just 2.3–2.4%. Markets price a 25 bp October hike at about 73%, the DXY holds near 101.20 and the RBA raised rates to 4.60% today. Today brings JOLTS (consensus ~7.23M) and Conference Board confidence (~89.4), followed by PCE on Wednesday, ISM on Thursday and Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.

Sentiment and central-bank demand

Money-manager net-longs fell to the lowest since late July and gold ETFs lost roughly 1.6 tonnes, so long liquidation and stop-runs below $4,230 amplified the drop. Structural support remains: August ETF inflows of about $18bn lifted holdings to 4,189 tonnes and central banks bought a record 288.9 tonnes in Q2. Chinese physical premiums have faded to near zero ahead of Golden Week, while India awaits Diwali.

Market impact - today’s trading day summary

Gold trades at $4,130 and Brent at $103.98. The bias is strongly bearish, but after a roughly 4% one-day drop the risk of a sharp technical rebound is rising. The key level today is $4,110; a short-term trend shift needs a return above $4,230–4,250.

Level	Zone (USD)
Resistance 2	4,300–4,340
Resistance 1	4,200–4,250
Key pivot	4,110–4,135
Support 1	4,050
Macro support	4,000

Scenario odds: 30% bullish, 20% neutral, 50% bearish.

This report is prepared by the An Infinity Original team as a daily overview of market and geopolitical developments based on publicly available sources and market data at the time of publication. It is for informational and analytical purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading on financial markets carries a high risk of capital loss.