Gold climbs back above $4,400 ahead of decisive CPI

Hormuz blockade pushes Brent above $102

Brent is at $102.10 per barrel with an intraday high of $102.66. WTI is above $100 for the first time since May 2026.

Continued tanker attacks and security risk in the Strait of Hormuz keep restricting shipping and pushing up tanker war-risk insurance costs. Energy desks are aggressively pricing in a physical oil deficit and delayed Gulf deliveries, holding crude firmly above the $100 psychological mark.

OPEC+ itself is compounding the problem. August production across the 11 member countries fell by roughly 640,000 barrels per day to 19.71 million bpd, driven by disrupted Saudi exports and the US blockade of Iranian shipments – exactly when the market needed additional supply.

Equities post fourth losing day as OPEC cuts demand outlook again

The S&P 500 closed −0.58%, its fourth consecutive loss and roughly 3% below the August record. The Dow fell −0.60% and the Nasdaq −0.65%.

High bond yields combined with expensive oil are pressuring valuations of tech and growth names. So far this remains a controlled risk-off rather than systemic panic. There is no credit event or forced liquidation, which is why gold has not yet seen the capital inflow typical of a genuine financial crisis.

OPEC also cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast for the fifth time, this time to just 380,000 bpd – a signal that high energy prices are starting to curb economic activity. The market is now balancing a historically strong supply shock against emerging demand destruction.

Today’s CPI will decide the September Fed call

Release at 14:30 CEST. The probability of a September rate hike has risen to roughly 70%, from about 64–65% before PPI and 60% after last week’s NFP. The 10-year Treasury yields 4.83% nominal, the 10-year TIPS 2.43%, and the inflation breakeven sits around 2.37%.

The market expects headline CPI of +0.4% m/m (+3.4% y/y) and core CPI of +0.2% m/m (+2.4% y/y). August gasoline prices rose to an average of $4.192 per gallon from $4.064 in July, so the energy component is likely to push the headline number higher again.

The key question is whether the energy shock is spreading beyond fuel. If headline surprises higher purely on oil while core holds near 2.4%, the Fed can argue the shock is external and temporary. If core also surprises higher, a hike will be almost fully priced in and the debate will shift to further tightening later in the year. The FOMC meets September 15–16.

Central banks keep buying gold

World Gold Council data show central banks’ net purchases of 23 tonnes in July, with China adding 20 tonnes and Poland 8 tonnes. PBoC reserves are up roughly 60 tonnes year-to-date.

The Bank of Korea announced, for the first time in 13 years, a new gold allocation via gold ETFs worth roughly $250 million, or about 2 tonnes. It is another sign the official sector is turning to gold more actively, including through financial instruments rather than only physical reserves.

Gold’s long-term structural picture remains exceptionally strong despite short-term pressure from high real yields. Growing doubts about the sustainability of US debt financing – Goldman Sachs notes that Treasury bond buybacks do not address the underlying financing need – are reinforcing gold’s appeal as a reserve asset outside sovereign debt.

Market impact - current levels and scenarios

XAU/USD spot is at $4,425. The metal defended the $4,400–4,430 zone and reclaimed the psychological level after yesterday’s drop to $4,323.78 and a close at $4,355.85. Brent is at $102.10 with an intraday high of $102.66, under structural demand pressure from Hormuz and OPEC+ discipline.

Level	Zone
Resistance	$4,400 – 4,420 / $4,450 / $4,475 – 4,500
Support	$4,320 – 4,350 / $4,280 – 4,250 / $4,200
Breakout target	above $4,480 → $4,550 – 4,600

Key watch items today: US CPI at 14:30 CEST, DXY, 2-year and 10-year Treasuries, 10-year TIPS, and Brent at $105–110.

The current $4,425 price has already cleared the $4,400 threshold that yesterday’s bearish narrative flagged as key. This morning’s institutional accumulation suggests the market is leaning toward cautious optimism ahead of CPI. Today’s release, however, could flip this picture sharply in either direction within minutes.

Scenarios

• Bullish (45%): headline CPI hot only on energy, core soft → TIPS and DXY fall → breakout toward $4,450–4,500.
• Bearish (30%): headline and core both surprise higher, TIPS above 2.45–2.50%, DXY above 99.5–100 → loss of $4,320 toward $4,280/4,250.
• Neutral (25%): CPI in line with expectations → consolidation in the $4,350–4,450 range into the September 15–16 Fed meeting.

Daily Infinity News is a daily analytical and educational briefing prepared by the An Infinity Original team based on publicly available market data and news. It is for informational and analytical purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading CFDs and leveraged products carries a high risk of capital loss.