XAU/USD · Macro analysis
Jackson Hole playbook: what a dovish Powell means for gold
Three scenarios for the Jackson Hole speech, their probabilities, and what each one means for gold and our sequences.
Profit Lovers · Autor ·
Esta análise ainda não foi traduzida, por isso é apresentada em inglês.
Three scenarios
A dovish Powell that signals cuts into year-end, a balanced speech that keeps options open, and a hawkish surprise. We assign roughly 50/35/15 and build the plan around the first two.
What each means for gold
A dovish tone lifts gold through $4,600 with real yields as the driver. A balanced speech keeps the $4,380–$4,600 range intact. A hawkish surprise is the only scenario that risks a fast drop toward $4,300, and it is also the least likely.
Our plan
We keep sequences running through the speech but cap new exposure until the first reaction settles. The range trade has paid better than guessing the headline.
Ouro (XAUUSD)
Valores oficiais diários dos três meses até 21 de agosto de 2026, fixados na data de publicação. Fonte: LBMA.