Geopolitical update (Hidden Triangles) v6 – major update, 27 August 2026

The Fed fork reopens

Ahead of Jackson Hole the market is again split between a cautious Fed and one that cuts into weakness. Both branches of the fork have historically favored gold, which explains why the metal rallied 14% in August to around $4,600.

Debt, Taiwan and the risk premium

US federal debt crossed $40 trillion, and Taiwan launched its largest mobilization on record. Neither event moves gold on its own, but together they widen the geopolitical premium we track in the hidden-triangles framework.

What changed since v5

We raised the upper target of the main triangle to $4,750 and moved the invalidation level to $4,200. The full update is available in Slovak, English and Hungarian.