Daily Infinity Geopolitical/Technical News: Riyadh Under Fire for a Fourth Day as Gold Tests $4,200

Riyadh under fire for a fourth straight day

Saudi civil aviation authority GACA repeatedly suspended all flights at King Khalid International Airport after new swarms of drones and ballistic missiles launched from Yemen were detected. Tuesday’s strike is the fourth consecutive day of attacks on Saudi aviation infrastructure, now reaching the capital rather than only border provinces such as Jizan and Asir, and follows a weekend hit on the terminal that killed 12–13 people and wounded hundreds. The Houthis declared Saudi airspace an “active zone of military operations” and threatened any civilian flight. Air defenses are saturating: cheap Shahed and Samad drones drain radars and Patriot PAC-3 stocks before Quds cruise missiles and ballistic salvos arrive, and Riyadh has asked Washington for emergency resupply.

Iran’s proxy leverage: Red Sea and Hormuz blockades

With its own forces under US and Israeli strikes, Tehran has activated the Yemeni wing to shift the cost of the war onto the Gulf Arab states and pressure Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to deny allies the use of bases at Prince Sultan and Al Dhafra. The Houthis block the Red Sea while the IRGC maintains a de facto closure of Hormuz, and CENTCOM confirmed armed incidents against vessels violating the embargo, leaving commercial tanker traffic near a standstill. President Trump said the rebels are “misbehaving very badly” and that the US will ensure Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon.

IMF slashes Gulf growth while Fed hawks hold the dollar

The IMF cut its 2026 Middle East growth forecast from +1.9% to −0.3%, with Saudi Arabia revised from +2.1% to −3.3%, the UAE from +3.4% to −3.9% and Iran from −1.2% to −7.6%. Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain fall to a 10–14% contraction because oil and LNG cannot cross Hormuz; Oman, with ports outside the strait, is the exception at +2.4%. War-risk premia jumped from 0.1% to 1.5–2.5% of vessel value per voyage. Rising energy costs and slowing growth form a stagflation trap, and Kevin Warsh’s refusal to bend keeps hike expectations at 4.00–4.25%, the dollar at 1.5-year highs and Treasury yields elevated.

Morning briefing: yields slip and gold attacks $4,200

Spot gold is pressing the psychological $4,200 level, clearing short-term averages and squeezing sell-stops above $4,195, with December futures at USD 4,209.70. The US 10-year yield fell to 5.194% (−0.94%) as cash Treasuries reopened after Columbus Day, while Brent eased to USD 107.89 (−0.51%) but kept a geopolitical premium that Trump’s announced Moscow–Kyiv energy truce failed to dent. The calendar is heavy: Waller at 09:45 CET, the OPEC monthly report at 12:00, Barkin and Collins in the evening, then Wednesday’s US CPI at 14:30 CET, expected at 3.7% YoY, and Warsh in Bangkok on Friday.

Market impact - today’s trading day in brief

Spot gold trades near USD 4,198 and Brent at USD 107.89. A hot CPI combined with a hawkish Warsh could pull gold to USD 4,150, while cooling inflation opens the way to USD 4,250.

Level	Zone (USD)
Resistance 2	USD 4,216–4,256
Resistance 1	USD 4,200–4,207
Key pivot	USD 4,195–4,198
Support 1	USD 4,182–4,185
Macro support	USD 4,150–4,172

A confirmed H1 close above USD 4,200 opens USD 4,216–4,225, while a rejection and a drop below USD 4,195 returns gold to USD 4,182. For Brent, holding above USD 106.50–107.00 keeps the setup bullish toward USD 109.50.

Scenario odds: 35% bullish, 35% neutral, 30% bearish

This report is prepared by the An Infinity Original team as a daily overview of market and geopolitical developments based on publicly available sources and market data at the time of publication. It is for informational and analytical purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading on financial markets carries a high risk of capital loss.